Jared Goff: Tosses two more TDs on Thursday

This section compares his advanced stats with players at the same position. The bar represents the player’s percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average. The longer the bar, the better it is for the player.

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Goff had a career revival last season, surprisingly finishing QB10 in fantasy. On about 100 more attempts than in his first season in Detroit, he increased his passing yards by nearly 1,200 and his TDs by 10. Goff meshed well with first-year offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as his YPA jumped a full yard to 7.6 (7th) with a league-high TD/INT rate (4.14). He was particularly impressive in the second half of the season when he threw 15 TDs and no interceptions. He still didn’t throw downfield much — 8.0 percent of attempts were beyond 20 yards (28th) — but when he did, he was more accurate than usual (51.9 on-target percentage – 8th) and his receivers helped with 12 40-yard completions, second only to Patrick Mahomes (13). That number likely will regress, and while Goff again has Amon-Ra St. Brown to target, he’ll be without Jameson Williams the first six games due to suspension. Marvin Jones returned to Detroit in free agency, but he’s now 33. And tight end Sam LaPorta, a second-round pick, was highly effective after the catch in college, but it usually takes tight ends time to adapt to the NFL. In the backfield, first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs is a skilled pass catcher, replacing D’Andre Swift, while RB David Montgomery takes over for Jamaal Williams as the big back. The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the league, so Goff should at least have time.

Goff’s biggest accomplishment last year was proving the Rams were wise to trade him for Matthew Stafford. Goff had the same problem his first season as a Lion that he did previously with the Rams — downfield passing. On attempts of 15-plus yards, only Sam Darnold had a lower YPA than Goff’s 8.0. His on-target percentage on such throws was 23rd (51.3). And like with the Rams, Goff too often was content to check it down. He finished last in the league in average target depth at 6.4 yards, and only two QBs threw a higher percentage of passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage (52.0 percent). Goff’s surrounding WR talent wasn’t great, outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown, who emerged as a rookie while mostly playing the slot. Goff doesn’t have that excuse this year, as the Lions signed DJ Chark and drafted Jameson Williams 12th overall. T.J. Hockenson returns at tight end after missing five games last year, and the backfield is stocked with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams.

Goff proved last season he was the weak link on a Rams team with Super Bowl aspirations. Among QBs with at least 500 attempts, he had the fewest TD passes and tied for the most interceptions. His main problem was throwing downfield. In fact, he barely tried to go deep. His average target depth was 6.4 yards, second lowest in the league, as only 8.8 percent of his attempts travelled at least 20 yards (29th). And despite throwing a lot of short, easy passes, his bad-pass percentage was still only a middle-of-the-pack 19.2 percent. The Rams finally had seen enough, and paid a hefty price to ship Goff to Detroit for Matthew Stafford. Perhaps a change of scenery will do Goff good, but he’ll have to overcome a much worse setup on a rebuilding Lions team. Detroit allowed Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones to walk in free agency, downgrading at WR with Tyrell Williams, Kalif Raymond and fourth-round pick Amon-Ra St. Brown. TE T.J. Hockenson looks like the No. 1 receiver, while the backfield has two pass-catchers in D’Andre Swift and newcomer Jamaal Williams. New OC Anthony Lynn plans to install an offense with “spread principles” with Goff primarily operating out of the shotgun – Goff’s YPA in shotgun last season was 6.9. Goff seemingly has less upside than ever.

Call it a Super Bowl hangover or simple regression, but Goff took a big step backward last season. He had 65 more pass attempts than the year before but came up 50 yards short of his 2018 total as his YPA dropped a full yard from 8.4 to 7.4. Worse, he threw 10 fewer touchdown passes while tossing a career-high 16 interceptions. Goff’s two biggest problems were the red zone and downfield passing. In the case of the former, the Rams had 21 fewer red-zone trips (80 vs. 59) than the previous year, and Goff lost five touchdown passes despite a slight uptick in red-zone TD pass percentage. His downfield passing was even more worrisome. On nearly the same number of attempts as 2018 (55 vs. 51), Goff totaled nearly 400 fewer yards on passes of more than 20 yards, his touchdowns on such throws falling from seven to one. WR Brandin Cooks’ injury woes are partly responsible for that decline, but the Rams didn’t replace his speed this offseason after trading him to the Texans. Wide receivers Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds return, though none is a field-stretcher. Nor is second-round draft pick Van Jefferson, who averaged 12.3 yards per catch in college. On the plus side, Goff might get more help from the running game with Todd Gurley and his bad knee gone to Atlanta, and the Rams still have a quality tight-end duo in Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. But Goff now seems reliant on getting 600-plus pass attempts, rather than relying on efficiency the way he did in 2017 and 2018.

After making huge strides as a passer in his sophomore season, Goff improved even further last year while leading the Rams to the Super Bowl. He was one of five quarterbacks to top 4,500 passing yards, and he ranked fourth in the league with 8.4 YPA. Goff was fairly consistent as well, putting up 300-plus yards and/or multiple touchdowns in 12 of 16 games. It certainly pays to play in Sean McVay’s wide-open offense. Goff’s average depth of target (8.9) ranked 12th as he excelled at downfield passing. His 47.3 completion percentage on attempts longer than 20 yards led the league, as did his 16.6 YPA (min. 35 attempts). Only Patrick Mahomes (75) had more completions of 20-plus yards than Goff (69), and there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be more of the same this year. Cooper Kupp is expected to return from an ACL injury early in the season, while Todd Gurley is expected to be ready for training camp. With Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods returning, Goff appears headed for another productive season. The Rams exercised their fifth-year option on the 24-year-old quarterback but are not expected to offer a contract extension until next offseason.

Perhaps no player in the league improved as much as Goff last year. After posting the lowest YPA (5.33) in the NFL since 2011 as a rookie, Goff ranked third in the league last season. His completion percentage in 2016, which was 32nd of 33 qualified QBs, shot up by 7.5 percentage points. His passer rating improved by 36.9 points, the second-highest increase from a QB’s first to second year in league history. Perhaps most impressive, Goff equaled his interceptions and took one less sack on 272 more attempts. Whether it was a better supporting cast, the arrival of coach Sean McVay or the departure of coach Jeff Fisher (probably all three), Goff went from beyond awful to the Pro Bowl in one year. Goff still has room for improvement, specifically with his deep ball. He attempted only 46 passes longer than 20 yards, ranking 19th, and completed 37 percent (10th). Only three QBs with as many long-distance attempts threw fewer TD passes than Goff’s three. Passing-game guru McVay likely will give Goff more opportunities to stretch the field this year, especially after trading for speedster Brandin Cooks, whom the Rams hope will be the No. 1 wide receiver and deep threat that Sammy Watkins failed to be last season. Dependable wideouts Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are back, as is running back Todd Gurley, who will still be the first threat defenses look to counter. The Rams have a more difficult schedule this year, but that’s about the extent of the concern with Goff and the offense.

The first pick in the 2016 draft, Goff didn’t start until Week 11 last season and then looked every bit a rookie. His 54.6 completion percentage ranked 32nd among 33 QBs with at least 200 attempts, and he posted the league’s lowest YPA since 2011. Goff didn’t get much help from an offense that lacked a No. 1 WR, rarely attempted to go deep and couldn’t pass protect — 26 times for a 60-sack pace and league-high 11.3 percent sack rate. L.A. only modestly improved the line, but the offense will at least change with new coach Sean McVay, who stretched the field with a vertical passing game as Redskins OC the last three years. After adding Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Josh Reynolds in the offseason, the Rams finally landed a deep threat in August with the acquisition of Sammy Watkins. With holdover Tavon Austin still around, Goff has a better supporting cast than expected when training camp opened, but it remains to be seen if he can integrate effectively all the options at his disposal.

The Rams paid a steep price to move all the way up to the number one pick in order to ensure they landed Goff, the most NFL-ready quarterback available in this year’s draft. It’s fair to assume they’ll have him under center in Week 1 as they attempt to establish a fanbase in their new/old home. A starter from the moment he arrived on campus at Cal, Goff has grown into an exceptional on-field leader with the size and arm to make every NFL throw. Although not a natural scrambler, he showed good pocket awareness in college and an ability to dodge traffic and keep his balance while waiting for receivers to come open. The big concern for Goff is how quickly he’ll adapt from a college spread offense and learn to read defenses, especially while playing with a roster that still lacks a true No. 1 wide receiver. But with Todd Gurley in the backfield and a stout defense, the Rams won’t need to lean on him too heavily as a rookie to keep the offense moving. While his ultimate ceiling may be closer to Matt Ryan’s, in the short term Goff’s production will probably look more like Teddy Bridgewater’s.