Adam Thielen: Clear for Week 17

This section compares his advanced stats with players at the same position. The bar represents the player’s percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average. The longer the bar, the better it is for the player.

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Thielen scored 30 TDs his final three seasons in Minnesota, but only six last year as his per-game averages dropped to 4.1 catches for 42.1 yards. His 6.7 YPT was easily a career low, and he now heads to Carolina on a three-year, $25 million contract ($14 million guaranteed) to give No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young an experience receiver to target. It’s a situation that assures Thielen of a starting job and at least a handful of targets per game, but a big rebound is unlikely as he enters his age-33 season relying on a 22-year-old QB and a new coaching staff. Any value might be limited to PPR leagues, as the Panthers don’t have much else in terms of quality targets — the other “top” options are DJ Chark, second-round pick Jonathan Mingo, Terrace Marshall and TE Hayden Hurst.

The Vikings are running it back with Thielen, Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook surrounding Kirk Cousins. That’s good news for Thielen’s 2022 prospects, given that alternatives might’ve included a rookie QB, though there’s no question Jefferson has surpassed him as the top option. Last year, Thielen scored 10 TDs through 11 games, averaging 5.7 catches for 62.4 yards on 8.1 targets. That, after scoring six TDs on only 30 catches in 2019 and 14 on 71 receptions in 2020. Thielen didn’t play a full game after Week 12 in 2021, missing four full games and most of two others with an ankle injury that required surgery in December. Thielen is expected to recover in time for training camp, and assuming that happens, he’s still the No. 2 receiver in a solid offense — one where Cook and Jefferson demand most of the attention. There is also risk, with Thielen coming back from surgery and turning 32 before Week 1, not to mention his TD dependency the last three years. To make good on his draft price, Thielen either needs his first 1,000-yard season since 2018 or a continuation of his dominance in the red zone.

With Stefon Diggs gone, Thielen appeared to be the only game in town for veteran QB Kirk Cousins last season. But in 15 games Thielen managed only 108 targets, tied for 27th, thanks to first-round pick Justin Jefferson (125 targets, 1,400 yards) setting the league ablaze as a rookie. All was not lost, however, as Thielen finished third in the league with 20 red-zone targets, 13 of which were from inside the 10 (3rd) and eight of which were from inside the five (T-3rd). Unsurprisingly, Thielen was also third in touchdown catches with a whopping 14. At 6-2, 200, with 4.49 speed, Thielen is tall, has excellent hands and runs solid routes. At 31, he’s no longer much of a downfield playmaker – only 11 catches of 20-plus last year and one for 40 – but his solid catch rate still netted him a respectable 8.6 YPT. Expect the more explosive and dynamic Jefferson to be Cousins’ top target again in 2021, but Thielen isn’t likely to disappear, as the Vikings have little receiving depth beyond those two.

A hamstring injury ruined Thielen’s 2019 season, but through six games he was more or less on track for his usual year, posting a 38-26-366-5 line, prorating to 101-69-976-13 over 16 games. Thielen proved he was back in the playoffs with a 9-7-129 line against the Saints, so the injury shouldn’t concern us much heading into 2020. Thielen’s been efficient for years – before his injury-plagued 2019 he had posted at least 9.0 YPT every season since 2016, and even last year was above that mark prior to the injury. At 6-2, 200, Thielen has decent size, runs crisp routes and rarely drops a pass. He also has above-average speed – he ran a 4.49 40 at his 2013 pro day and had eight catches for 40-plus yards in 2017-18. Thielen also saw plenty of red-zone use those two years, particularly targets from inside the 10-yard line (16 in that span), though that was with former offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, and last year the Vikings had Kevin Stefanski in that role. This season, Thielen and the Vikings offense will undergo more changes. Gary Kubiak, last year’s assistant head coach, will take over as OC, likely adding his own twist to the zone-blocking West Coast offense. Stefon Diggs, Thielen’s main competition for targets the last four years, left via free agency and was replaced by first-round pick Justin Jefferson. As such, Thielen is the probable target leader in what should be an above-average offense, though at age 30, his skills are probably slightly past their peak.

On the surface Thielen built on his 2017 breakout last year, cementing himself as one of the league’s top receivers with a 153-113-1,373-9 line and 9.0 YPT (10th). But the shape of Thielen’s efficiency and overall production changed under quarterback Kirk Cousins. Instead of making big plays, he simply caught a higher percentage of the passes thrown his way. Despite 11 extra targets, Thielen had two fewer catches of 40-plus yards and three fewer of 20-plus. And even though Thielen maintained his solid per-target efficiency, his YPC dropped from 14.0 in 2016-17 to 12.2 last year. In full PPR, perhaps this is for the best. Thielen’s average depth of target was a modest 9.2 yards, helping him to a whopping 73.9 percent catch rate, the 17th-best mark of all time among 100-target wideouts. But the Vikings offense took a step back in 2018, and offensive coordinator John DeFilippo was replaced by Kevin Stefanski. While it’s unclear how Stefanski might change the scheme – he’s only 37 and previously the quarterbacks coach – the Vikings’ dink-and-dunk style might have been dictated as much by a shaky offensive line as it was by coaching philosophy, i.e., we could see more big plays from Thielen if it holds up better in 2019. (To that end, the Vikings used their first draft pick on a center, their second on a tight end and their fourth on a guard. They also signed guard Josh Kline and get center/guard Pat Elflein back from injury.) At 6-2, 200, with 4.45 speed, Thielen is a good athlete who has excellent hands (only two drops all year) and strong route-running skills. He was also used a good deal in the red zone (21 targets, 6th), and inside the 10 (nine targets, T-8th), meaning his spike in TDs was no fluke. Stefon Diggs is once again Thielen’s only major competition for targets, but tight end Kyle Rudolph does siphon away some red-zone looks.

Sam Bradford, Case Keenum – it didn’t matter to Thielen, who built on his 2016 breakout and solidified himself as one of the league’s better receivers. He averaged 9.0 YPT (7th among the league’s 27 100-target receivers) en route to a 91-catch (8th), 1,276-yard (5th) season. The knock on him was the meager TD output – he had only four, all in a six-week span – but that’s probably a fluke, as Thielen saw 16 red-zone looks and seven targets inside the 10, modest opportunity, but enough to score at least a couple more times than he did. At 6-2, 200, and running a 4.45 40, Thielen is tall and fast, has excellent hands, runs good routes and adjusts well to the ball in the air. He’s also capable of stretching the field – his five catches of 40-plus yards were tied for seventh in the league. Heading into 2018, Thielen should reprise his role opposite Stefon Diggs, with tight end Kyle Rudolph (nine targets inside the 10, eight TDs) siphoning off some of the easy scores. But the departure of Keenum and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur could shake things up. New OC John DeFilippo comes from a dynamic offense in Philadelphia, and new quarterback Kirk Cousins will be Thielen’s third – and probably his best – in three seasons. Change always creates some added risk, but there’s reward here too.

A former undrafted free agent, Thielen broke out during his third season in the league with 967 yards on only 92 targets. That comes out to 10.5 YPT, good for second among the league’s 50 90-target WR. Thielen had only two catches for 40 yards, but 16 of 20 or more, despite the modest workload. At 6-2, 200 and with 4.45 speed, Thielen is just a notch below the typical NFL No. 1 receiver athletically, but he has excellent hands, runs crisp routes and makes good adjustments to the ball in the air. Thielen signed a three-year deal in March and enters the year as one of the Vikings’ top targets along with third-year WR Stefon Diggs and TE Kyle Rudolph, who sees most of the red-zone work. Last year’s disappointing first-rounder, Laquon Treadwell, is also in the mix, but Thielen is the only option who can occasionally stretch the field.

The former Minnesota State standout made 12 catches on 18 targets for 144 yards in 16 games during the 2015 season, and also racked up 89 yards on four carries. Thielen will be buried on the Vikings’ wide receiver depth chart again in 2016, so he figures to spend most of his time on special teams during what will be his third season in the league.

Thielen had eight receptions last season as he made the roster as a reserve receiver and special teams player. He’ll try to reprise that role for the Vikings again in 2015. He was used at times as both a punt and kick returner. It’s hard to see him having a large role on offense without multiple injuries in the receiving corps.

An undrafted free agent from Minnesota State who is a long shot to make the active roster.

Thielen will attempt to crack the roster as a reserve at receiver in training camp.