This section compares his advanced stats with players at the same position. The bar represents the player’s percentile rank. The longer the bar, the better it is for the player.
Adams had an unusual first season in Las Vegas last year, posting a career-high 11.8 aDOT and seven-year-low 55.6 percent catch rate while leading the NFL with 14 receiving touchdowns. The one part that wasn’t surprising? His 180 targets ranked second in the league, trailing only Justin Jefferson, with new Raiders coach Josh McDaniels placing a huge emphasis on his No. 1 receiver and lead back Josh Jacobs. It didn’t really work from a team standpoint, as QB Derek Carr’s efficiency nosedived while throwing fewer short passes under a coach who supposedly was known for a quick-strike passing game. Now Carr is out and Jimmy Garoppolo is in, while Jakobi Meyers replaces Mack Hollins as the No. 2 WR and Austin Hooper “replaces” Darren Waller as the top tight end. All the moves hint at an increased emphasis on the short passing game, but Adams still figures to run a lot of deep routes if only because he’s the lone receiver on the roster well-suited to the task. He’s also a threat in the short and intermediate areas, so things will probably work out for him one way or the other from a fantasy standpoint, following five consecutive seasons with more than 83 receiving yards per game (and 61 TDs in that span).
It’s hard to beat playing with Aaron Rodgers, the four-time MVP. By any other standard, Adams has a pretty good setup in Las Vegas, where he’ll join former college teammate Derek Carr and new coach Josh McDaniels. The off-field chemistry with Carr won’t necessarily produce the kind of remarkable on-field chemistry Adams had with Rodgers, but there is already some familiarity, and Carr’s last two seasons were arguably his two best. You could say the same for Adams, a rare late bloomer in an era where most big-time wideouts break out in Year 1 or 2. For Adams, a 2014 second-round pick with 4.56 speed, it took until his third campaign, which yielded 997 yards and 12 TDs. He averaged 97 catches for 1,199 yards and 11.5 TDs the last six years, highlighted by 18 TDs in 2020 and 1,553 yards in 2021. Rodgers was a big part of that, but he’s played with a lot of receivers over the years and only Jordy Nelson ever had comparable numbers. The move to Vegas means a QB downgrade, and it also means Adams will face more competition for targets, joining a team that already has Hunter Renfrow and TE Darren Waller. Neither runs many routes on the perimeter, though, and McDaniels has a history of favoring the passing game over the run. It’s a pretty good deal for Adams, who also has a big contract to show for it.
Adams had a fantasy season for the ages last year, especially when you consider he missed 2.5 games. Prorate his numbers over the full 16, and you get 177-136-1,628-21, which would be the greatest WR PPR season of all time, eclipsing Jerry Rice’s 1995. At 6-1, 215, Adams is a stout, physical wideout who runs smooth routes and has great hands. He’s particularly effective in the red zone, where Aaron Rodgers targets him like no one else in the league. Despite the missed games, Adams had 28 red-zone targets (1st), 20 targets inside the 10 (1st) and 11 targets inside the five (1st). It also helped that Adams had one of the league’s easiest schedules – only twice all year did he face a top-10 fantasy defense against receivers (Bears, 8th), and in those games combined he managed a modest-for-him 15-12-107-2 line. Adams faced the top-ranked Rams defense in the divisional playoffs and had 66 yards and a TD on 10 targets, too. Although he tied a career high with five catches of 40-plus yards, Adams’ 11.9 YPC was in line with his career averages, while his per-target efficiency went through the roof (9.2 YPT) thanks to a career-high 77.2 percent catch rate. In other words, he wasn’t getting targeted farther downfield – his 8.7-yard average target depth ranked 26th among the league’s 35 100-target wideouts – he just caught everything thrown his way. At 28, Adams is still in his late prime, and with Rodgers back for another year, no one has a higher floor.
Despite missing four games with a toe injury, Adams was more or less himself last year, with numbers that prorate to 111-1,329-7 on 169 targets over a full season. His touchdowns dipped, but over his last eight games, including the playoffs, he scored seven times. Adams has never been especially efficient, and last year was no exception – 12.0 YPC and 7.9 YPT. At 6-1, 215, Adams is stoutly built, runs good routes and has a great rapport with Aaron Rodgers. In fact, Adams is the only target Rodgers has seemed to trust since Jordy Nelson left town three years ago. But Adams uncharacteristically had eight drops last year (in 12 games), and with his modest speed (4.56 40) he’s not a major threat to stretch the field – only 12 catches of 20-plus and two for more than 40 yards last year. The Packers lack wideout depth beyond Adams, so he’ll be the unquestioned top target again, and at age 27, he’s still squarely in his prime and virtually certain to get a large share of the red-zone work. Rodgers isn’t what he once was, but he’s still well above the threshold for supporting one of the league’s top fantasy receivers.
It’s good to be Aaron Rodgers’ top target. Adams finished second in the NFL with 169 targets and first in red-zone looks with 31. The result: 111 catches (T-5th) and 13 TDs (2nd). Adams wasn’t especially efficient – his 12.5 YPC and 8.2 YPT ranked 15th, i.e., slightly below average among the league’s 28 100-target wideouts. At 6-1, 215, Adams combines good size with polished route-running and good hands (only five drops). Adams has only average speed – he ran a modest 4.56 40 at the combine in 2014 – but last year he hauled in five passes of 40-plus yards (T-7th). For 2019, Adams will again be Aaron Rodgers’ unquestioned top target, but the Packers offense should be more dynamic, and possibly more diverse. Mike McCarthy and his outdated schemes are finally gone, and former Titans and Rams offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur will presumably install a more modern offense. Ordinarily that might mean fewer targets for Adams, both overall and in the red zone, but it’s hard to see anyone on the roster (Geronimo Allison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown) who could push him for those looks.
Jordy Nelson’s departure leaves no doubt: Adams is Aaron Rodgers’ No. 1 WR now. There actually wasn’t much doubt last year, either. Adams had 117 targets in 14 games, increasing his per-game number from 2016 when Nelson was the team’s top dog. Once again, Adams was a red-zone and TD machine – his 23 looks tied for second with Cooper Kupp and Jarvis Landry, despite the missed games, and his 10 TDs were bested only by DeAndre Hopkins. Unfortunately, Adams’ per-play production dipped – his 7.6 YPT was 18th among the league’s 27 100-target WR, though in fairness he played half his games with backup Brett Hundley. At 6-1, 215, and with average speed (4.56 40), Adams is physically unremarkable. He’s stout, sure-handed, able to make plays in traffic and capable of an occasional big play – seven catches of 40-plus yards over the last two years. Of some concern is the arrival of 6-7 tight end Jimmy Graham, who could cut into Adams’ red-zone work significantly. Keep in mind, however, that Nelson led the NFL in targets inside the 20 in 2016, when Adams was tied for second, i.e., the Packers like to throw from in close and generate plenty of red-zone chances, so there should be enough to go around. Adams missed the last two games of 2017 with a concussion, his second of the year, but cleared the protocol in early January and eventually signed a four-year deal with an $18 million signing bonus. His role for 2018 is secure.
Left for dead as an NFL prospect after an abysmal 2015, Adams salvaged his career last season, establishing himself as a reliable outside receiver and red-zone option for QB Aaron Rodgers. At 6-1, 215 and with 4.5 speed, Adams is stout and also faster than average for his size. His efficiency was merely average last year with 13.3 YPC (40th) and 8.2 YPT (19th), but his 23 red-zone looks tied him for second in the league, and he scored on seven of them, a big part of why he tied for third in the league with 12 TDs. Adams also made his share of big plays — 17 catches for 20-plus yards and four from 40-plus. The Packers didn’t add any significant pieces at receiver this offseason — though TEs Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks replace Jared Cook — so Adams should again have a prominent role in the Packers offense. There’s a chance a healthier Randall Cobb re-claims a bigger share of targets from the slot, but the larger question is what happens should Jordy Nelson get hurt or fall off the aging cliff. In 2015, it was a disaster for Adams and the Packers, but Adams should be more prepared now that he has three seasons under his belt and a better rapport with Rodgers. An ankle sprain hampered Adams during the team’s playoff run last year, but he’s healthy at press time and expected to be ready before the start of training camp.
In the wake of Jordy Nelson’s season-ending injury last summer, Adams entered 2015 with astronomical hype projecting as Aaron Rodgers’ second option at wide receiver behind the established Randall Cobb. However, Adams endured injuries to his ankle and knee during the year, and coupled with his underwhelming production, produced a disappointing campaign in the eyes of many. He’ll now need a strong offseason showing to re-cement himself as the third option behind Cobb and Jordy Nelson, where he’ll face stiff competition from Ty Montgomery, Jeff Janis, Jared Abbrederis, and 2016 fifth-round pick Trevor Davis. Fortunately, Adams does have his second-round draft pedigree going for him, so he likely isn’t competing for a roster spot. With that said, Adams will still be jockeying for position on the depth chart while desperately trying to regain the chemistry with his quarterback that seemingly evaporated over the course of last season.
Being the No. 2 target in Green Bay guarantees relevance, which is Adams’ role, in the wake of Jordy Nelson’s season-ending injury. As a rookie, Adams had three games in which he eclipsed 75 yards, and while his overall efficiency numbers (11.7 YPC, 6.8 YPT) were poor, especially in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense, the sample (66 targets) was small, with the wideout seeing erratic work in his first NFL season. At 6-1, 215, and running a 4.51 40, Adams has good size and average speed, but he’s an explosive athlete with first-rate ball skills, and of course he’s in an ideal situation playing within the context of the Green Bay offense.
Adams is a little smaller and a step slower than ideal, which kept him out of the first round in this year’s draft, but his leaping ability, sure hands and fierce will to win every ball he can reach could make him a very dangerous red zone target for Aaron Rodgers down the road. The Packers’ depth chart is too crowded for Adams to have immediate value, but if injuries push him into a bigger role as a rookie he could surprise.
