Between two missed games and the fallout from Tom Brady’s decline, Evans appeared in serious danger last December of losing his eight-year streak of 1,000-yard seasons. Then he ripped the Panthers for 207 yards and three TDs in Week 17, later sitting out Week 18, to finish the year with 1,124 yards in 15 games, i.e., his normal level of production. Evans will be tested again in his age-30 campaign, with the Bucs apparently letting Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask duke it out for the starting job. The winner of that less-than-stirring battle won’t have the benefit of a top offensive line the way Brady did a few years back, but the receiving corps at least appears in good hands with Evans and Chris Godwin, though Russell Gage suffered a season-ending injury in training camp. Of course, all of that becomes problematic for Evans’ fantasy prospects if he’s dealing with solid target competition in an otherwise lackluster offense while moving a step slower than he did in his prime.
The first two years of the Tom Brady era in Tampa Bay brought the two lowest target totals of Evans’ career, with the 6-5 wideout barely getting over the century mark after averaging 139.2 in his first six NFL seasons. Fortunately, he’s also finished with his two highest TD totals (13, 14) as well as career highs for catch rate in back-to-back years (64.2 and 64.9 percent, after reaching 60 percent just once in six seasons previously). Evans even managed to extend his 1,000-yard streak to eight in a row, though it came down to the wire both years with Brady. For 2022, there is some hope for Evans to combine his pre-Brady volume with his Brady-era efficiency, especially if fellow star wideout Chris Godwin has issues coming back from a late- season ACL tear. Godwin signed a three-year, $60 million contract in March, a few days before the Bucs poached Russell Gage from Atlanta for the No. 3 receiver role (and they later added Julio Jones). In other words, there are still plenty of mouths to feed, but Evans offers a comfortable floor without too much sacrifice in terms of ceiling.
Like Chris Godwin, Evans is a No. 1-quality wide receiver getting No. 2 volume, thanks to all the mouths to feed in the Buccaneers offense. Despite seeing only 109 targets (T-25th), Evans scored 13 touchdowns (4th), averaged 9.2 YPT (10th) and caught 20 passes of 20 or more yards (T-5th). At 6-5, 231, Evans is too big for most cornerbacks, and his 4.53 speed is enough for him to create the moderate amount of separation he needs. Quarterback Tom Brady also took advantage of his size in the red zone — Evans’ 14 targets from inside the 10 and eight targets from inside the five were second only to Davante Adams’ totals. But Evans will again perform on a crowded stage, with the Bucs using their franchise tag on Godwin, re-signing Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown and even bringing back O.J. Howard and Scotty Miller off the bench. Tampa Bay will be a fun team to watch, but it’s unlikely any receiver gets his desired target share.
Evans has been monstrously efficient the last two years with a league-leading 11.0 YPT in 2018 and 9.8 (4th) last year, thanks in large part to his big-play ability – 17.3 YPC (2nd) and seven catches of 40-plus (4th) on only 118 targets (T-19th). At 6-5, 231, Evans is massive for a receiver, and he has enough speed (4.53 40) to create the moderate amount of separation he needs. Evans also got his share of red-zone work – 17 looks in only 13 games, including nine targets from inside the 10 (T-10th) and seven from inside the 5 (T-2nd). The big question for 2020 is how Tom Brady’s presence will affect Evans and teammate Chris Godwin. While Jameis Winston was a mediocre real-life quarterback, he was great for the fantasy prospects of his top receivers, especially a deep threat like Evans. Brady rarely threw the deep ball the last few years in New England, and at age 43, he has below-average arm strength. That said, Brady hasn’t had a receiver like Evans since Randy Moss, and Brady had no problem getting Moss the ball downfield 10 years ago. The other question is how the team integrates newly acquired, newly unretired tight end Rob Gronkowski, who at press time is expected to share the position with O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. If Gronkowski stays healthy, he should cut into Evans’ red-zone work at the very least. But No. 3 WR Breshad Perriman left for the Jets, so there should be some extra targets freed up there, and the Bucs should have a pass-heavy offense in any event. Evans missed the last three games of 2019 with a hamstring injury, but he’s expected to be 100 percent healthy for training camp.
Evans had one of the quieter 1,500-yard seasons in recent memory. Perhaps playing on a bad team for a rotating tandem of quarterbacks had something to do with it, or maybe it was the relatively modest 86 catches and eight TDs. Either way, the 25-year old Evans was amazingly efficient with 11.0 YPT (1st), 17.7 YPC (1st), 26 catches of 20-plus yards (2nd) and six catches of 40-plus (T-3rd) on only 138 targets (11th). Contrast Evans’ season (138 targets for 1,524 yards) with Antonio Brown’s (168 targets for 1,297 yards) for example – the efficiency discrepancy is stark. At 6-5, 231, and with 4.53 speed, Evans isn’t quite on the Julio Jones level of freakishness, but few players that big are also that fast. At 26, Evans is still squarely in the prime of his career, and he could receive a boost with downfield-focused coach Bruce Arians replacing the departed Dirk Koetter, though offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who helped power Evans’ efficient season, is now in Cleveland. Deep threat DeSean Jackson and possession man Adam Humphries are both gone now, leaving Chris Godwin and rising-star tight end O.J. Howard as Evans’ only major competition for Jameis Winston’s passes. Evans could also see an uptick in TD scoring. Despite his massive frame, he saw only 14 red-zone targets last year (the same number as Humphries), six targets from inside the 10 and two from inside the five – all four-year lows. With a coaching upgrade, fewer mouths to feed in the passing game and more stability under center, Evans has the best environment of his career.
What an odd career Evans has had so far. His touchdown totals beginning with his rookie year are 12, 3, 12 and 5. He seems to toggle between rising star or pedestrian talent depending on whether the year is odd or even. Dig a little deeper, however, and Evans’ 2017 wasn’t that different from his 2016, as his poor YPT and average YPC barely changed. It was his volume – 173 targets two years ago and only 136 in 15 games last year – that fell off most. At 6-5, 231, Evans is a monster physically, and his 4.53 40, while below average for a 185-pound wideout, is blazing for someone built like a tight end. One would think Evans would be among the top leaders in red-zone looks, but that’s not the case. His 18 targets from that area ranked only ninth, and his nine targets inside the 10 were tied for ninth too. Evans can make plays down the field – he had four catches of 40-plus yards his rookie year, but he’s had only five in the three years since, spanning 457 targets. Evans should reprise his role as the team’s No. 1 wideout in 2018, and in fact the Bucs extended his contract another five years in March with a whopping $55 million guaranteed. But DeSean Jackson is still around to stretch the field, second-year man Chris Godwin could have a bigger role, and tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate should also remained involved. In short, while last year’s 136 targets are Evans’ healthy floor, don’t expect his 2016 volume to return any time soon. And don’t be surprised if Evans gets off to a slow start, as quarterback Jameis Winston will be suspended for the first three weeks, leaving Ryan Fitzpatrick to fill in.
Very often, volume is king. It was the case for DeAndre Hopkins in 2015, Pierre Garcon in 2013 and Evans last year. Despite a pedestrian 13.8 YPC and 7.6 YPT (28th among the league’s 41 100-target WR), Evans finished fifth in catches (96), fourth in yards (1,321) and tied for second in TDs (12) en route to the No. 1 non-PPR season among all WR. That’s what happens when you lead the league in targets (173). At 6-5, 231 pounds and with 4.53 speed, Evans is a freak, not quite in the Julio Jones/Calvin Johnson mode, but more peak Brandon Marshall. Evans didn’t make many downfield catches last year (15 for 20-plus yards, only one of 40 or more), and despite his size was only tied for 11th with 19 red-zone looks. But he converted seven of those for scores, something about which we shouldn’t be surprised given the physical mismatch he presents. The Bucs added plenty of talent to the receiving corps for 2017 with deep threat DeSean Jackson, third-rounder Chris Godwin and first-round pick tight end O.J. Howard to pair with the already competent Cameron Brate. Moreover, tailback Charles Sims should be ready for the start of training camp, siphoning off a few more targets per game. This is likely to cost Evans opportunities, but also upgrade his efficiency now that the defense has to pay attention to other players.
On the surface, other than a dramatic drop in TDs, it looks like Evans largely duplicated his stellar rookie season. He actually averaged more YPC (16.3, 3rd) and nearly as many YPT (8.1, down from 8.5). Evans saw more red-zone looks in 2015, more targets inside the 10 and inside the five. Moreover, he played with Jameis Winston (7.6 YPA), a decided upgrade over the Josh McCown/Mike Glennon combo. So why did Evans catch only three TD passes on 148 targets after scoring 12 on 123 as a rookie? For starters, he led the league with 10 penalties and 11 drops, though six drops came in one game. Second, Winston scored six rushing TDs, depriving his receivers of some easy end-zone targets (TB’s 22 pass TDs ranked 22nd). Third, as Evans admitted, his chemistry with Winston was “a little bit off”, a problem the two sought to rectify this offseason. At 6-5, 231, with good speed (4.53 40) for his size, Evans is too big for opposing defensive backs and too fast for linebackers. Even in a down year, he still managed 21 catches of 20-plus yards (4th), two more than Odell Beckham and DeAndre Hopkins. Vincent Jackson is still around, but at 33 he’s a complementary option. While Austin Seferian-Jenkins could steal some RZ targets, Evans should reprise his role as No. 1 WR on a team with little depth at the position.
While Sammy Watkins had more buzz heading into the draft, and Odell Beckham Jr. stole the show during the regular season, Evans’ rookie year was remarkable in its own right. For starters, he became only the eighth rookie wideout to eclipse 1,000 yards since the start of the millennium (though he was one of three to do it last year) and scored 12 TDs despite missing a game. And Evans accomplished these feats, along with a robust 8.5 YPT (14th), as a 20-year old while playing for the league’s sixth-worst passing offense (6.8 YPA). At 6-5, 231, Evans is an enormous target, and he has enough speed (4.53 40) to get deep, especially given how little separation he needs to make plays over smaller defensive backs. While 32-year-old Vincent Jackson is still around, Jackson’s at best option 1B, and more likely the clear second fiddle as Evans grows into a bigger role with new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and new quarterback Jameis Winston on board. Koetter’s hire is especially encouraging, as he presided over one of the NFL’s most pass-happy attacks the last three years in Atlanta, and Winston is widely considered the most NFL-ready QB prospect in this year’s draft.
While Sammy Watkins has the flash, it’s Evans who fits the profile of the modern No. 1 receiver in today’s NFL. He might have to wait a year or two with Vincent Jackson around, but there’s little doubt about his physical skills. At 6-5, 231, and running a 4.53 40 at the NFL Combine, Evans is enormous and fast enough to do damage down the field given his size. (His best unofficial time was actually 4.48). Think a younger Brandon Marshall with a little more height. He’ll make an ideal red-zone target, so even as second fiddle to Jackson, he should be a source of touchdowns from the outset. The quality of the offense remains to be seen, but it’s likely to improve over last year’s with new offensive coordinator Mike Tedford brought in from Cal and new quarterback Josh McCown.
