This section compares his advanced stats with players at the same position. The bar represents the player’s percentile rank. The longer the bar, the better it is for the player.
Kelce’s name has become synonymous with consistent excellence. He reached 1,336 yards and double-digit touchdowns in three of the past five seasons, with receiving lines of 97-1,229-5 and 92-1,125-9 the other two years. Kelce’s the top target for the league’s best passer, Patrick Mahomes, and the 6-foot-5 tight end has shown no signs of slowing down at age 33, suiting up for at least 15 regular-season games every season besides his 2013 rookie campaign. Last year he had career highs for targets (152) and touchdowns (12), led the NFL in red-zone targets (32) and had 424 more yards (1,338) than any other tight end. While Father Time is bound to catch up to Kelce eventually, he hasn’t given us much reason to think it will happen this year. The gap between Kelce and the rest of the pack at tight end is even larger in full-PPR formats, as his 507 catches over the past five seasons are second most among all players behind only Davante Adams’ 532, while another tight end doesn’t appear on that list until Zach Ertz with 361.
Kelce has been the epitome of consistency, topping 1,000 receiving yards each of the last six seasons. He’s also found the end zone at least nine times in three of the four years since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback in Kansas City while averaging 1,277 receiving yards in those four seasons. Every passing year brings increased fears Kelce will experience some age-related decline — he turns 33 in October — but those fears have been unfounded to this point. Kelce could see more attention than ever from Mahomes this season. The Chiefs traded No. 1 wide receiver Tyreek Hill to Miami this offseason, leaving Kelce as the likely top weapon over wide receiver free-agent acquisitions JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and second-round draft pick Skyy Moore. The only tight end to reach 1,400 receiving yards in a season (1,416 in 2020) in NFL history could challenge his own record if things break right, but Kelce’s advanced age and extra wear and tear from Kansas City’s numerous forays deep into the postseason pose some concerns that aren’t shared by the other couple tight ends who operate in his stratosphere.
Kelce seemed to reach his ceiling in 2018 when he caught 103 passes for 1,336 yards and 10 touchdowns for one of the great offenses in NFL history. It turns out he had another level to reach, with 2020 yielding career highs in catches and touchdowns, plus a TE-record 1,416 receiving yards. Already among the elite at his position during the Alex Smith era, Kelce now owns a three-year streak with at least 1,200 receiving yards, making him the first tight end to clear that hurdle more than twice. His age and the physical demands of his position might hint at some risk, but there is no sign of decline, nor has there been a significant injury concern since his 2013 rookie season. In any case, Kelce should remain productive for fantasy managers even when his real-life skills start to decline, assuming he’s still in Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Kelce’s ability to beat one-on-one coverage and make big plays is unquestioned, but he also benefits from easy receptions on screens and shovel passes, not to mention those broken plays where Mahomes summons a 25-yard gain out of thin air. George Kittle and Darren Waller provide stout competition for the 2021 tight end fantasy crown, but Kelce is the three-time defending champ for good reason.
Kelce offers an unmatched combination of floor and ceiling at tight end, missing just one game in the last six seasons while totaling at least 862 yards and four or more touchdowns each year. That includes four in a row with more than 1,000 yards and back-to-back seasons with more than 1,200. He peaked in 2018 along with the rest of Kansas City’s offense, riding the Patrick Mahomes wave to career highs in every significant counting stat. Apart from the touchdowns, Kelce came pretty close to a repeat last year, and he did it while handling a snap share higher than 90 percent for a fourth time in the last five seasons. He capped off the campaign with 19 receptions for 207 yards and four touchdowns in three playoff games, displaying the usual first-rate chemistry with Mahomes. A late start to his pro career means Kelce will turn 31 during the early portion (October) of what’s essentially his seventh season, but any signs of decline have been entirely absent. Locked in as an every-down player in the NFL’s most dangerous offense, Kelce will be the first tight end off the board in most fantasy drafts, with only George Kittle challenging the throne.
It might seem like Rob Gronkowski’s retirement promoted Kelce to the top of the tight end class, but Kansas City’s version of No. 87 was already there. Kelce rode shotgun on Patrick Mahomes’ MVP season, bumping most of his counting stats and efficiency ones too. He’s now ranked first, second and first in TE fantasy points the last three years. Mahomes was able to prioritize Kelce around the goal line in a way that Alex Smith never would. Kelce had just 16 targets inside the 10-yard line entering last year, then collected 12 – third in the league and most among tight ends – for 2018 alone. Perhaps Kelce will be a little easier to mark with Tyreek Hill likely out of the picture, but if defenses had any clue how to stop the 29-year-old tight end we probably would have seen it by now. No one has cracked this matrix. Injuries are a tricky thing to predict for anyone, especially those at tight end, the ultimate collision position. That said, credit Kelce for playing in 79 of 80 games the last five years. He had a clean-up ankle surgery in early March, missing the offseason program before gaining clearance for the start of training camp. Selecting a vanity tight end isn’t for everyone – some fantasy owners don’t want to play catch-up at the other positions. But with the first tight end tier a tiny and exclusive group, it’s possible margin analysis could push you to an early Kelce pick. It seems easier to get lucky at the other positions than it is to strike gold at tight end.
The genesis of the stats was a shade less dynamic – lower catch rate, lower YPC – but Kelce still pushed over that magic 1,000-yard plateau and posted his best touchdown season. In other words, he finally learned how to click with Alex Smith, Mr. Conservative. Alas, Mr. Smith is now gone to Washington, and Kelce needs to learn how to play with Patrick Mahomes, a high-pedigree, low-experience second-year quarterback. We suspect Kelce can succeed in any environment, but it also makes you curious to see how the Chiefs click this preseason. Will they continue to push the ball downfield as they did last season, contrary to previous seasons? Or will coach Andy Reid revert to protect-the-ball, dink-and-dunk? Kelce also has to share a little more, as the Chiefs have another mouth to feed in the offense – freshly acquired Sammy Watkins. And still, there have been only 43 tight-end seasons of 1,000 yards in NFL history and Kelce has two of them. Maybe the quarterback simply doesn’t matter. At 6-5, 260, Kelce is no match for defensive backs, and he’s a playmaker in the open field with speed and elusiveness. Kelce’s 2013 season was wiped out by a knee injury, but he’s only missed one start since. If you don’t like the running backs and wide receivers you’re faced with in the early rounds, a pivot to Kelce is always a reasonable alternative.
For the most part, 2016 goes down as a glorious breakthrough year for Kelce, a 6-5, 260-pound athletic freak who is often compared to Rob Gronkowski. He led all tight ends in yards last year and was just one catch from the TE reception crown (Dennis Pitta finished first; use that as your bar bet, then drink for free all night). With Jamaal Charles out of the mix and Jeremy Maclin also injured much of the year, the Chiefs were forced to move outside of their comfort zone and Kelce was a major beneficiary. Alas, it still felt like some production was left on the table. Kelce only hauled in eight of his 18 red-zone targets, and four touchdowns is a light return for someone who catches 85 balls. Part of the blame goes to Alex Smith, who isn’t used to making any kind of throw unless it’s wide open. But at the end of the day, we’re still going to approach Kelce with optimism. The arrow is pointing up after he topped 100 yards in five of seven games to close out 2016, pushing him to a No. 1 finish among tight ends in any reasonable format. And with Jeremy Maclin gone, there’s potential for growth beyond last season’s 117 targets. Smith isn’t going to keep him from fantasy greatness, nor is Andy Reid. Heading into his age-28 season, Kelce is one of the few tight ends worth an early selection.
Kelce had a solid year last season, but not the breakout many expected, especially after his 106-yard, two-touchdown Week 1 performance. He scored just three touchdowns the rest of the way and had only two games with more than 75 yards, neither close to another triple-digit day. The culprit was a dink-and-dunk offense that attempted just 37 passes of more than 20 yards, second fewest in the league. Kelce saw only five of those and was limited to 17 targets in the 11-20-yard range, T-17th among tight ends. While he had a career-high 103 targets, 78.6 percent came on attempts of no more than 10 yards. As a result, his YPC (12.2) and YPT (8.5) slipped from his 2014 numbers, and he finished ninth at the position with 10 catches of 20-plus yards, five fewer than the previous season. The story at the goal line wasn’t much better, where, for the second year in a row, he was barely used – a mere three targets and one touchdown inside the 10-yard line. At 6-5, 260, he should be more of a goal-line threat, and he has the necessary hands, speed (4.61 40) and elusiveness to be a playmaker in the open field. Perhaps he will get more downfield opportunities with new offensive coordinators this season, but Andy Reid is still calling the plays.
After losing his rookie season to a knee injury, Kelce entered last year in a timeshare with Anthony Fasano. It didn’t take long for him to become the team’s best receiver and one of the league’s best playmakers at tight end. Despite only starting 11 games and playing limited snaps early in the year, Kelce led the Chiefs in receiving, finishing sixth among tight ends in catches and yards. In a run-first offense that didn’t do much downfield passing, Kelce took advantage of defenses that stacked the box to stop Jamaal Charles, totaling a position-leading 512 yards after the catch. His 7.6 YAC average also led tight ends as his speed (4.61 40) and elusiveness in the open field helped him gain a whopping 59.3 percent of his yards after the catch. He had 9.9 yards per target (1st) and had 15 receptions of 20-plus yards (3rd). At 6-5, 260, Kelce was too much to handle even with double-teams and safety help that appeared later in the year. Kelce, who only scored five touchdowns, has room for growth, too, as the Chiefs didn’t use him much at the goal line (three targets, two scores inside the 10). Fasano was not re-signed, leaving behind 36 targets, including five in the red zone. And with new WR Jeremy Maclin stretching the field, secondaries can’t focus solely on stopping Kelce, who could see 100 targets this season.
A third-round draft pick last season, Kelce lost his rookie season to a knee injury. He could play a significant role in the passing game this year, though, if he returns healthy. At 6-5, 260, he is bigger than incumbent starter Anthony Fasano (6-4, 255) and has more speed and can stretch the field. With the Chiefs lacking reliable receivers and favoring a short-to-intermediate passing game, Kelce is in a good situation to produce. Fasano and backup Sean McGrath combined for 73 targets last year, so there is opportunity to be had in the passing game.
Kelce may be the most talented TE from the 2013 draft class but will have to fight Tony Moeaki and Anthony Fasano for playing time as a rookie.
